This op-ed is published originally by Khaama Press
The U.S. has warned that it will withhold $300 million dollar in military assistance to Pakistan if it does not take serious and practical steps to hunt down members of the notorious Haqqani network who are targeting both Afghan and U.S forces in Afghanistan. For the same reason, prime minster Nawaz Sharif’s visit to Washington, which was planned for October, is also hold off. This significant shift in the U.S. policy towards Pakistan follows the growing criticism by the Afghan government and people over Pakistan’s support of the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.
Looking at these recent developments and changes in the Obama’s administration’s perception in regard to Pakistan’s sincerity in the fight against terror, it has become clear that Pakistan is in the verge of losing achieving its strategic objectives that are set forth in its doctrine of “strategic depth” and foreign policy towards Afghanistan.
The latest series of deadly suicide attacks across Afghanistan that are believed to be directly coordinated by the Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence Agency, ISI, has also tremendously shifted Afghans’ sentiment in regard to Pakistan in a negative way. Regardless of their ethnic and political differences, Afghans from across the country have become more united in recognizing the source of insurgency and condemning it.
A weaker Afghanistan to serve and exclusively align with the interest of Pakistan, coupled with continuous support of the Taliban and Haqqani Network to achieve Pakistan’s objectives of “strategic depth”, which is to have political control over Afghanistan and minimize India’s role in war-torn country and beyond, are among the key elements of Pakistan’s foreign policy in regard to Afghanistan.
Ever since its formation as a country, Pakistani military has been the principal force in setting and executing Pakistan’s foreign policy. As long as such influence from the military and ISI on designing foreign doctrines of Pakistan exists, the likelihood of any major shift in regards to Afghanistan, in particular, and region, in general, is foreseeable neither in short nor in long-term.
Despite fundamental foreign policy differences between United States, China, Russia, and India,when it comes to Afghanistan, there is a general consensus among all these major players: a secure, stable, prosper Afghanistan will serve in the best interest of all the countries in the region and world. In achieving this common goal of a stable Afghanistan that’s no longer a safe haven for terror groups, the international community led by the U.S., has tremendously contributed and made huge sacrifices. Since the beginning of the war against terror in Afghanistan, the U.S., in addition to spending nearly one trillion dollar, has lost around two thousand of its military personnel in a war which is now clearly known to be supported by Pakistan’s military.
There is an untapped potential that can turn around the region. If utilized properly, it will lead everyone towards economic growth and prosperity.Nearly 3 billion people live in India and China alone. The fast economic growth pace in China and India, and the abundant energy resources in Central Asia, coupled with nearly 3 trillion dollar worth untapped mineral resources in Afghanistan, all can serve as catalysts for regional integration and economic cooperation. However, peace and stability are the prerequisite for the realization of such ambitious objectives in the sub-continent.
Now with all efforts made by afghan government under President Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah to reach peace with the Taliban brooked by Pakistan has failed, the United States should exert pressure on Pakistan through diplomatic channels to become a genuine supporter of the peace deal with the Taliban. Meanwhile, not only should the U.S. withhold giving a portion of the military assistance to Pakistan, it should also suspend all of the assistance that directly goes to the Pakistani military.
Any continuation of such assistance to Pakistan’s military will not only be an indirect fueling of insurgency, it will also in vain all the sacrifices the U.S. and its allies have incurred in Afghanistan in the war against terror. The resumption of cash in aid should be subject to Pakistan’s taking of practical steps in hunting down members of Haqqani network. Similarly, the aid should be diverted to the civilian government under specific projects aim to empower democratic institutions with a clear mechanism for evaluation of the outcomes which should set to be achieved with these assistance.
China, a close ally with economic ties to Pakistan, can also play a major role in ending the on-going conflict in Afghanistan through the influence it has over Pakistan and the stakes it has in peace in Afghanistan. Besides its economic goals that can only be achieved with stability and security in Afghanistan, the stability of Xinjiang, the western region of China, is great risk due to the wide presence of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) who is agedly enjoying sanctuaries and safe havens in Pakistan and remote parts of Badakhshan province of Afghanistan. Any further instability and escalation of insurgency in the region will further provide an enabling environment for the ETIM to extend its operations inside China.
As peace and security in Afghanistan serve the interests of regional and world powers, its restoration equally needs a consolidated and unified approach. Unless otherwise such consensus on exerting more pressure on Pakistan to play a sincere role to broker a peace deal between Taliban and Afghan government and eliminate those who don’t renounce violence and insurgency in Afghanistan is reached and utilized, the likelihood of security and stability in Afghanistan will not be possible and its ramifications to the region and beyond will be hard to avoid.
Habib Sangar is Former Director of Afghanistan Parliamentary Institute and graduate alumni of Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, United States. He can be followed at https://twitter.com/h_sangar
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