By: Habib Sangar
Beginning in 2014, Afghanistan is heading from journey of
transition toward transformation. While there are widespread concerns among
Afghans about the ability of their government to maintain security throughout
Afghanistan and protect them from the Taliban and remnants of Al Qaeda,
sustainable economic development in post-2014 raise more concerns, as the volume
of aid provided by the international community will substantially decline.
Transforming Afghan economy from aid-dependence into self-sufficiency,
which is one of the most important objectives set by the international
community and its Afghan partner, is only feasible if Afghan government
efficiently utilizes and invests in its abundant mineral resources and builds a
commercialized, market-led agriculture sector. However, investment in mineral industry and agriculture
sector requires sustainable and low-cost electricity. Not only is electricity
required for investing in and developing mineral industry and agriculture
sector, it similarly is an important contributing factor for overall
socio-economic development in Afghan nation. Equally, provision of sustainable,
affordable, and efficient electricity can upshot in economic growth and
employment opportunities- alleviation of poverty, women empowerment, and advancing
access to quality basic human services.
Despite of unprecedented influx of $ 62 billion in aid since 2002 into the country, which
mostly has been spent on quick-impact counterinsurgency type projects,
electricity sector as an important driver for growth has gained pintsize to
generate and supply electricity desired for sustainable economic development
and progress. It also seems that there
has been no specific roadmap and strategy to take Afghanistan towards
electricity-independence and sufficiency in foreseeable future. Set in Afghanistan National Development Strategy, providing and supplying electricity to
65 percent urban and 25 percent rural households by 2013 now seems overly
ambitious to achieve.
Despite all the money
poured into the country - with 2.226 billion kWh electricity consumption Afghanistan is
among the least amount of electricity generation and supply countries in the
world. According to the Afghan electricity company (De Afghanistan Breshna
Sherkat), Kabul, the capital, is the only city, where about 70 percent of the
households have regular access to electricity.
While most of the Afghan households struggle with lack of
electricity and spend nights in dark, Afghan small-scale industries, which seem
to be the main booster of economic growth in post-2014, get only15 percent of
overall 600 MW, currently available electricity. While speaking on TOLO-NEWS, President of Afghanistan Investment
Support Agency (AISA), Wafiullah Iftikhar, reported that around 80 small-scale
afghan factories are expected to return soon from Pakistan. As much as return
and operation of these factories are promising to economy development,
providing and maintaining of energy supply is similarly essential to retain and
further attract investments into the country.
Agriculture as a vital sector, comprising
about half of Afghan GDP, still faces numerous challenges. Lack
of sufficient electricity to irrigate, run storage and process facilities
consider as a major obstacles ahead of this sector. Provision and supplying
sufficient electricity will boost agriculture productivity and will help to
transform “traditional” agriculture into technologically- sophisticated,
modern, commercialized, and market-led sector.
To address electricity shortage dilemma,
Afghanistan has potential to generate about 23,000 MW of electricity, mostly from renewable
sources. Whereas, in order to fulfill the demand for supplying electricity for
its urban and rural population, Afghanistan only needs about 3000 MW electricity. The current source of electricity, which to a
larger extent is saturated from the imported electricity and diesel-burned
USAID-funded generators, will soon face formidable financial challenges as
foreign aid substantially shrinks after 2014.
In immediate term, to
improve and enhance production capacity of its existing hydropower plants,
beside of renovating and refurbishing the existing electricity generation
infrastructure, mainly dams and turbines, it is important to improve efficiency
of currently available electricity by investing in and modernizing transmission
and distribution facilities. Similarly, Afghanistan’s geographical terrains
provide a favorable climate for implementation of micro-hydropower,
mini-off-grid solar, and wind electricity generation projects. Implementing
such decentralized projects will help societies to transform and ensure access
of the target population to quality basic services.
While the short run strategy ensures
provision of abundant and affordable electricity to the households in rural and
urban areas and to small-sale industries- in long-term, Afghanistan, in
collaboration with the international community and monetary institutions, such
as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, has to focus on construction
of dams, reservoirs, and coal and natural gas-based electricity generation
projects. And since feasibility studies
to determine existing potential of hydropower dam has already been completed,
the planning, designing, and implementing phase of these projects should receive
critical attention and should be made one of the top priorities of Afghan
government after 2014.
Implementing projects of such scale,
besides security and stability, requires tremendous amount of financial
resources and funds. Attracting and allocation of such resources requires
political will and a firm commitment from Afghan government and the
international community. In addition to that, while embarking on legal and
institutional reforms, the government has to adopt and create favorable environment
for public-private partnership. Although Afghan government has introduced some
reforms into the energy and electricity sector, substantial efforts to create
conducive environment for public-private partnership to attract private
investments and to ensure provision of quality services through competition is
still absent.
Failures to bridge the gap between public
and private sector in the field of energy and electricity are mainly due to
lack of clear energy policy, legal and institutional framework, administrative
capacity, and existence of overwhelming corruption.
Considering the potential of using
various renewable and clean sources for generating electricity, Afghanistan can
become self-sufficient in terms of generating and supplying electricity to
ensure steady economic growth and development. However, looking at current
track record of current administration and presence of overwhelming corruption,
the likelihood to successfully utilize this existing potential into actual goods will stay a dream for many Afghans
unless fundamental changes and reforms takes place.
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